People who love placing football bets will tell you that there is no football betting system that will work long term. Whether or not that is true is another story
Others will say that the teams that win the most games have the best chance of winning the bet and beating the spread (ATS).
If you want to win, of course you must believe that the best chance of winning is not handicapping the games, but picking the winning team. Is that the case?
The fact is that most people who bet on sports are losers long term. In the long run, the best sports bettors are some who know that fact well. They also keep track of what they are doing to come up with the best possible sports picks with the best chance of winning.
The number one reason why most sports bettors lose long term is that they make the wrong picks in the first place. If you are making your picks based on a team’s previous performance, or motivation, or results against the spread, than you are making bets without knowing what you are doing.
You can handicap a team, but you must be very familiar with what a team means when it comes to sports, or you will not win long term. Things such as “they are a strong running team” are meaningless unless you understand the game.
If you make the right pick, than you will feel good. You just made the smartest and most educated guess. Now, you need to make the bet and you must do it with confidence. Before you bet, you need to tell yourself, “I have done this correctly”. The more confident you feel, the more bets you will win.
I used the word ‘skeptical’ several times in this article, but I did not want to leave out the word ‘pokerlegenda‘. Everybody is a little crazy at different times. It is a form of self defense against the world. If you have a problem with the word ‘skeptical’, at least in the beginning of this article, I hope you will read further and respond to my points, rather than just jump to a conclusion that I wanted.
There are a lot of people in the world who bet for a living. There are a lot of systems they use to do their picks. Some pick specific teams. Some take what they know about the players and the teams, and rank them by the ease of playing or related factors. Others may use what They know about the teams, the players, the recent results and other things. But most pick certain teams, based on what they know, and make picks.
Based on my own research, since 1980, whereby I have bet on football games as a Systems beholder, the favorite teams win around 60% of the time. The underdogs win around 40% of the time. In that 30% of the time the teams go a specific way. 58% goes to the favorites. 20% goes to the underdogs.
In the NFL, the underdogs have won 57% of the games, the favorites have won 30% of the games, and the difference is slightly in the point spread, with the favorite covering on 26% of the occasions, the underdog covering on usually 60% of the occasions.
There are some very good reasons to bet on the favorites in football. Most notably, in the NFL, unlike basketball and baseball, the team’s chemistry issue is not a consideration. If a team is bad down the stretch, they quit the team. It is human nature to fall in love with certain players, coaches, and venues. An upset could prove to be the final push to a playoff, a DENA dome- ADVANTAGE!
Unlike basketball and baseball, the teams in football fall in to three categories: At Home, +ats, and -acts. Home teams cover the spread 60% of the time when they are at home and the underdogs cover the spread 40% of the time in away games. So if you stake your neighborhood on a home team, you will probably break even or even come out ahead with the underdog.
RAISE FOR THErows, -your team. NEVERbets the juice on the opener. Put a smaller amount of cash on the line that you feel will cover you if they lose. If you feel particularly rich, you can increase the juice on the favorites by 10% or so.
The -1.5 unit on the favorite is the same as the +1.5 unit on the underdog. Your cash balance on the -0.5 will be the same as your cash balance on the +0.5. So for every 0.5 units you wager the juice will be 0.5 units higher.